Technical Analysis Eur vs USD

Tools Used 

1. Fibonacci
2. Support and Resistance
3. Pivot

Advance Pattern

1.  double top
2. ABCD Pattern
3. Butterfly and Bat

the trade that you can see in the video is going down. however this trade has to have confirmation first.

Confirmation needed

1. if it will not break out the Resistance or close price after break out. then I will make a trade.

2. if it will have rejection and momentum going up is fading I will make the trade

3. Since Stop lost is more than 50 pips, then i could not create advance setup. Ill be observing this pair 

4. if everything is on opposite then ill will be waiting for pull back on 1hr time frame before take trade. 

Pattern 
1. Butterfly which i prefer to trade the ABCD. the X point is based on the Support and Resistance and pivot. which the entrancement is more than the requirement of Butterfly (AB must be 0.716)

2. Bat pattern is the full arm based on 1 day time Frame which the completion of butterfly is exactly .618 retractment

3. ABCD pattern on Butterfly have same entry point on the extension of XA. which is the 127. while the ABCD pattern ends on 1.618 which is both have the same price location. thats why this give me another confidence.

Note: 
MACD Cross over on 4hrs did not cross yet meaning chance is still high to go up,
RSI in 1hr shows that it reach the maximmum buyers so there will be selling anytime soon.
Be advice trend is going up but it is giving huge potential to start on trading low.

Other Currency that is in my watch list
GBPJPY = Pound yen

How to trade Forex (Day 8 and 9)

You Aint gonna PROFIT unless you Know How to trade Forex.

• Indicator
• Strategy
• Money Management
• Time Frame

Are all USELESS when you dont know how the Market works. Don't be confused on how to trade Forex and How to profit from Forex. You got to know first the very nature of the market before you are going to plan how to take profit from it.

Problem with forex trading is we intend to focus Profiting, We intend to focus on how much dollars we make or Pips we can do. We intend to discipline ourselves  on the system we had created and for some which make it worst we intend to focus on the system that others created.

You may wonder and ask if trading is a skill and based on your own personality how come I cant build my account? You knew who you are and have chosen the best indicator that suit on your own personality, yet you cant just build your account up.

Like me i have spent my time knowing what kind of trader I am, searching who really I am. What is the best tailored fit system, strategy and indicator. I have tried learning from candle stick to sophisticated indicators that I know. which often lead my judgment and confidence to no where and loosing a lot than winning...

This is why I created this Topic that often not tought by the many, How to trade a Forex is the base line of everything. 

• Before you can implement your strategy you have to learn and be in one with the market.
• Before you can tailor fit indicators based with your personality you have know the heart beat 
• Before you can create system or rules on your own trading style you have to learn how to trade Forex

The importance in Learning  How to trade Forex First is Critical. What you are going to see does not have to do on any tools you are going to use. And definitely this has nothing to do how you are going to trade it. Remember there is no right or wrong on trading. What im going to share is the building block, the pillar! the Post and the must . The effectiveness of your tools, strategy, indicator will depend how much you understand how the market works. how the prices are connected with individual time frame. In short, How to trade Forex.

Below are some of the signs that you dont know how the market works. A signs that you dont know the relationship of every price on given time Frame, A sign that you lack or dont know How to trade Forex and make it Profitable.

1. You don't have a hint where the market is going
2. Confused on the relationship between time frame
3. Dont look on higher time Frame
4. Dont understand why the support and resistance changes every-time
5. Cant Explain why the support and resistance changes every-time
6. Could not identify the signs that market is about to change. 
7. Dependent on the indicator not as confirmation but a tool where to start a trade
8. Often listen on how others think rather than trusting your analysis

Don't Miss understood what im going to share to you. this is not a holy grail, nor strategy and most of all this is not an Indicator. but simply the base line of everything, a heart beat of the Market. The stronger you understand this the higher possibility you will be one with the market. This is not telling you the exact location of the price but rather getting a higher probability to happen. Giving you enough time to respond right and not to react. Reaction and Responding are two different thing. Just like how to trade Forex and How to Profit in Forex.

Reaction by nature are driven by emotions or feeling that often cloud our decision. Reaction can be right but it can be wrong. In which we know in trading if your wrong it will be devastating. Reaction often is form instant or quick in a short period of time. That you have made your decision because you react on what you see or feel.

Responding, this is where you need a skill. See in forex,  if you dont know how to trade. you will be reacting more not on Responding More. Since Responding is a calculated reaction, to efficiently solve the task or dilemma. Responding is calculating the the possible things to happen. does giving you room for improvement. While reaction is fixed. 

So How to trade Forex? watch the video below and learn to respond more not to react more.

Non Farm Payrol GBPUSD

The thought of Selling, trade down is for the reason a butterfly pattern has formed. however due to previous high and Low on 1 day time frame I have consider to start my trade on the 161.7 Extension of point BC. Now to be able to Manage the amount of pips I am risking I took the previouse High in I day which exactly gave me the enough pips to risk based on my capital. From my Money management I am only allowed 40 to 50 pips to risk.

as for the Take Profit I have considered the Non Farm Payroll once the mark 61% retracement is hit. The possibility that this is a reversal is half confirm for the reason a 1 day support is yet to be broken. however because of the nature of batterfly pattern which is an active reversal. the previouse pattern contributed a lot of factor for my confidence that this will have a long down pips.

Did i really know that this will happen? to be honest it shakens my confidece due to its long consolidation on 4hrs that took almost a day before it confirm that my trade was right. I even have small losses since i traded up on the candle that break the consilidation. howerve i did not turn of my sell trade but of course i did put a stop lost on my buy trade.

What Next?

I have lot to consider if i will find a reversal pattern on 1 day which what i can see is an head and  shoulder advance pattern then thats the time Higher percentage of reversal is confirm. Not to mention neckline must be below the support of 1 day...

if it did not break then most cases it is start on 2nd wave for uptrend refer pic below

Purpose of Money Management

The Objective of Money Management is 

• To Improve your Trading skill

Common Mistake in every trader is wiping out their account. The reason  for this they have under estimate the Success rate of their Strategy. Given the fact you are new discipline on trading is not one of your virtue.

Why Filipino belong to the 90% that fail in forex trading? because they loose so much that hurt them. wipe out account is the most painful  normal scenario when you are developing your skills. the joy of profiting from trades where devour by the pain of loosing Big. Loosing so much that you dont want to try again and improve where you have failed.

This is where Money Management will help you. It will keep you on track that even you are loosing Money Management will give you chance to fight back, pick up the pieces and not to do your mistakes again. In Forex it take skills to succeed and this can only be done through experience. How can you develop your skill if your account is wipe out?

However because of the limitation of trade size that you are going to trade, you will find that it will take long time to build. Imagine having $500 Dollars account your ideal trade size is only from 10 cents to 30 cents per pip.

In the video below I am going to show you how to Double your allowable trade size without Hurting your Account if you loose the trade EX.

Based on the Chart above

1. You are allowed to trade only at .3 or 30 cents per pip with tolerable pips you can risk of 42
2. In the video you can trade .6 or 60 cents per pip with tolerable pips to risk of 42 without hurting your Account. meaning you are still using money management system

IMPORTANT
above chart is design based on my way of trading.