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Saturday, August 5, 2017

Non Farm Payrol GBPUSD




The thought of Selling, trade down is for the reason a butterfly pattern has formed. however due to previous high and Low on 1 day time frame I have consider to start my trade on the 161.7 Extension of point BC. Now to be able to Manage the amount of pips I am risking I took the previouse High in I day which exactly gave me the enough pips to risk based on my capital. From my Money management I am only allowed 40 to 50 pips to risk.

as for the Take Profit I have considered the Non Farm Payroll once the mark 61% retracement is hit. The possibility that this is a reversal is half confirm for the reason a 1 day support is yet to be broken. however because of the nature of batterfly pattern which is an active reversal. the previouse pattern contributed a lot of factor for my confidence that this will have a long down pips.

Did i really know that this will happen? to be honest it shakens my confidece due to its long consolidation on 4hrs that took almost a day before it confirm that my trade was right. I even have small losses since i traded up on the candle that break the consilidation. howerve i did not turn of my sell trade but of course i did put a stop lost on my buy trade.

What Next?

I have lot to consider if i will find a reversal pattern on 1 day which what i can see is an head and  shoulder advance pattern then thats the time Higher percentage of reversal is confirm. Not to mention neckline must be below the support of 1 day...

if it did not break then most cases it is start on 2nd wave for uptrend refer pic below